The article “My musings from Kumarakom” by Prime Minister, Vajpayee generated a lot of debate and nearly after four months he sent an invitation to President of Pakistan for a meeting on 15 and 16 July in Agra. The one to one deliberation between Prime Minister of India and President of Pakistan was successful and the two had almost reached an agreement to be signed. Some powerful cabinet ministers within the Vajpayee government defeated it. The 2004 meeting between Vajpayee and Musharraf was breakthrough that laid foundation for meeting between Manmohan Singh and Musharraf—debating out of box solution for Jammu and Kashmir. In retrospect when seen the 1994 resolution adopted by Indian Parliament—with all its strong wordings and unanimous could not stall future, discussions between the two countries. So holds true about the resolution adopted on 15 March 2013. True, the immediate provocation for the resolution adopted by the Indian Parliament has been the resolution adopted by Pakistan National Assembly on hanging of Afzal Guru and the after situation in Kashmir. Nevertheless, it does not mean before the Afzal Guru resolution, all was honky dory between the two countries. In fact, the ‘slowing down of the India-Pakistan normalization’ that largely went unnoticed started much earlier. Many important decisions that would have helped in building the much-needed trust between the two countries were paused. The gains though small made during four years of peace process were one by one collapsing. The visa liberalization agreement signed during September 2012, with great fanfare was suspended. The meeting on the Tulbul Navigation Project / Wular barrage between the secretaries was cancelled. The track two discussions to be held in Delhi in February were cancelled after visa to the participants from Pakistan was refused. Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh very subtly put an end to the three years peace process by stating that it would pot “business usual with Pakistan now”. Attributing the set¬back to the normalization of relations between the two countries to frenzied coverage The study suggests India as having twelve primary interests and three additional interests in Afghanistan after 2014. ‘These include, Countering increased Pakistani influence over events in Afghanistan, engaging with the nationalist insurgency in Baluchistan and across the border in Afghanistan, regarded by some observers as a counter balance to Pakistani ISI pro-Taliban support, Obtaining access to raw materials in Afghanistan to meet the needs of India’s growing population, ending the reported use of the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba as a proxy by the Pakistani ISI to act against India gaining the upper hand in Indo-China rivalry, which spills over into Pakistan, the Kashmir issue, in dispute with Pakistan (unresolved since 1947). The study apprehends Escalation in conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir by New Delhi media to border hostilities a Pakistani commentator recently saw, ‘A combination of factors having contributed to slackening in the pace of normalization’. In the Opinion of the commentator, ‘These included steps taken by India in the wake of recent incidents across the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, onset of the election season in Pakistan and the consequent wait-and-see stance adopted by the Indian government, which is also under mounting political pressure ahead of its own elections.’ These do so seem ostensible reasons for reversal of normalization relation but the whole situation is overwhelmingly brewing for competing interests of the two countries in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal in 2014. A study carried out by Barcelona Centre for International Affairs with the support of Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Dec 2012 provides an insight into as how the competing interests in Afghanistan are going to impact India and Pakistan relations and whole of the South Asia. Jammu and Kashmir, when read between the lines’ is sandwiched in these competing interests. The study has identified five specific regional powers as being “critical to the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan—these include India, Iran, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The study sees other countries such as Central Asian States and Turkey as ‘implicated’ actors with real interests and concerns in relation to both countries, but do not have the same depth and level of implication and/or influence as the above “big five” regional powers. The study analysis interests and additional interest and highlights redline for all the five big countries is seen in competition in the region. To analyze the interests of all the five counties is beyond the scope of this Column.The study suggests India as having twelve primary interests and three additional interests in Afghanistan after 2014. ‘These include, Countering increased Pakistani influence over events in Afghanistan, engaging with the nationalist insurgency in Baluchistan and across the border in Afghanistan, regarded by some observers as a counter balance to Pakistani ISI pro-Taliban support, Obtaining access to raw materials in Afghanistan to meet the needs of India’s growing population, ending the reported use of the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba as a proxy by the Pakistani ISI to act against India gaining the upper hand in Indo-China rivalry, which spills over into Pakistan, the Kashmir issue, in dispute with Pakistan (unresolved since 1947). The study apprehends Escalation in conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir. There can be no denying that Afghanistan after the US and NATO troops pack, lock, stock and barrel after 2014, for geo-strategic position, is going to be an important arena for key players in the region-like Iran, China and Russia, India and Pakistan. These will look for a role emerging scenario but competing for a role should not lead India Pakistan on a collision course. The leaders of two countries for preventing a spillover from Afghanistan into their countries and inundating pet the region should work for resolving the core issue. India’s former Minister, with more than fifty years experience had very rightly said: “A self-confident and resilient nation does not postpone inconvenient issues of yesterday to a distant tomorrow. Rather, it strives decisively overcome the problems of the past so that it can pursue developmental agenda for the future with single-minded determination. To see the development agenda—Islamabad and New Delhi should do away with policy procrastination and resolve the 65 year old dispute’ on the basis of Justice and fair play. Z.G.Muhammad is a noted writer and columnist
