“Erdogan is good”. This was the tenth time I heard this statement from a taxi driver in Istanbul, who happened to be driving me on the embankments of the Golden Horn in Istanbul. As he spoke, his eyes were shining with national pride and patriotism. Every time I asked a Turk about Receb Teyyeb Erdogan, the President of Turkey, the reply had the same message and conviction.
Erdogan is considered the architect of a new Turkey and more popular than the father of the nation, Kemal Ataturk, whose legacy seems to have been reduced to a few statues in Taksim Square or other tourist destinations. Apparently, there is a big difference between the two leaders. Ataturk tried to take his country out of the Islamic fold and place it firmly within the Western camp, even going to the extent of banning Arabic letters and prayers. He even asked his people to translate Azan into Turkish “if you feel desperate to pray”. By contrast, Erdogan’s clandestine efforts indicate the beginning of a process of taking it back into the world of Islam.
The president faces many compulsions. He cannot afford to take it totally out of the influence of Western countries which have not only penetrated deep into the Turkish political system but are also the biggest investors and trading partners of the country of 85 million.
Turkey is a member of NATO and has benefited from the NATO nuclear umbrella during the Cold War. There are some voices in Turkey who argue that NATO is Turkey’s guarantee against Russian aggression. However, recent events have completely changed the assumptions which informed Turkish internal and external policy. For example, the Turkish army, once the guardian of secularism, is no longer all powerful. The coup attempt of 2016 and the Ergenekon trials of 2013 gave Erdogan the opportunity to purge the armed forces of all putschist elements, as well as the strongly pro-secular, pro-Western elements. This has occurred in tandem with a warming of ties between Russia and Turkey. From collaborating in Syria to the Turkish decision to purchase the Russian S-400 missile system, Turkish politicians such as Erdogan are challenging the previous ‘red lines’ that the Turkish army had laid before the political elite.
There is still doubt as to how far Erdogan will go in reversing Kemalist secularism. Some of his detractors have accused him of trying to import Muslim Brotherhood values and attempting to create an Islamic state. Others have likened him to the Iranian revolution and the installation of an Islamic regime in place of the secular system. However, the reality is quite different. Erdogan has played his game very pragmatically. He has not changed the constitution to delete references to ‘secularism’. Nor has he instituted laws which would prohibit alcohol or disturb the tourist trade which brings in more than 30 million tourists a year and provides jobs for millions of Turks. Turks continue to live a more or less Western life style, be it marriage, inheritance or women’s freedom.
Erdogan’s popularity emanates from his performance as a mayor of Istanbul and his successful economic track record from 2002 to date. His cleaning drive, construction of sewerage and drainage systems and removal of urban squalor brought Istanbul on the world’s tourist map with millions of foreigners visiting every day. The Turkish economy benefited from Erdogan’s fiscal conservatism and investor friendly policies. It also benefited from his Islamic orientation, which attracted billions of investment dollars from Gulf countries, such as the UAE and Qatar. Turkey continues to be a major destination for Gulf investors. Turkey’s close economic relationship with the European Union has enabled the country to become a major manufacturer and exporter, producing everything from cars and home appliances to electronics. Turkish construction companies are considered the best in the Middle East.
My stay in Istanbul provided me a chance to attend marriage of a middle class family. It was like marriage of royals in London, with every lady wearing dresses worth tens of thousands of dollars. The marriage ceremony consisted of a few sentences in Turkish read by a fez-wearing Molvi. I enquired from one of the guests what the Molvi had uttered in Turkish. If found out that he had simply said “you are now husband and wife, and enjoy the rest of life together”. When I further asked her about the Muslim ceremony of Nikah, she laughed and said with mischief in her eyes, “Erdogan married in the same way as this, no scope for Nikah. He is befooling people. It might bring change in other countries but not in Turkey because it will take at least few more generations of Turks to kill the legacy of Ataturk which has penetrated deep into the skin”.
Erdogan has been able to open many old mosques and construct new ones across the country, even though many of the youth are drawn to night clubs. His attempts to attract them towards mosques have until now largely failed in the big metropolitan areas, though foreign visitors to grand mosques have generated huge income.
On one occasion, I saw people smoking sheesha, drinking beer and gambling on road side restaurants. Most of them ignored the Azan coming nearby from one of the newly refurbished mosques that remained empty except for a few old worshippers.
“We don’t like enforced religion, if we feel we should pray, we will do it on our own without being pushed to pray”, said one kiosk owner in a very casual manner.
Undoubtedly, Erdogan is very popular among the masses and he has already radically transformed Turkey. His future project depends on how he handles the contradictions inherent in being part of NATO and the Western economic system, whilst courting the current enemies of the West (Iran and Russia) and attacking the West’s closest allies in the region such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is likely that there will come a time when Turkey will have to make an irrevocable choice about which camp it sits in.
The author is a former editor of BBC & Ex. Chairperson of JK state commission for women.
