In 1995, China started high combat exercises in the province of Fuijan. They tested missiles, high range drop to drop pay loads and powerful artillery in the region. This all was being broadcasted on the national television. The China was itself preparing to invade Taiwan through strait of Taiwan-130 kilometres wade passage to reach the island which China has always considered as their integral part. The exercise rattled up after the Taiwanese president applied for a US visa which was significantly approved by the US senate defying Beijing. This was the time when Taiwan was holding its first free democratically elections in the country. China criticized the elections and labeled as sponsorship OF the USA. Because China did a thorough and rough high combat air exercises over the Taiwan tro and fro, The POTUS bill Clinton sent its aircraft carriers, guided missile cruises, destroyers and powerful weapon systems, entered through the strait of Taiwan defending the taiwanese people. The message at that time was very clear. “BACK OFF CHINA”. China had no alternative at that time but to back down and end its war games. But a lot has changed from last 26 years. China has lately added its air exercises over the Taiwan and doubled it 100’s of times a day since 1996. The ADIZ system reports that China not only has entered Taiwan airspace but has literally flown over Taiwanese capital. The air defence identification zone data reveals that Chinese aircrafts have flown over stretagic places again and again. The message from China to Taiwan is clear ” You will be ours”. In October 2021, US AND Canada both came with missile destroyers and aircraft carriers docking in the strait of Taiwan but this time neither China backed off not stopped its air exercises over Taiwan. Infact, Chinese Air force doubled the exercise of flowing aircrafts over Taiwan per day. Clearly, it is not the 90’s any more where President Clinton would send his bunch of ships and ask China to back down. China has become a super power. Their military might has become way more powerful and their zeal to take the Taiwan into mainland China has grown 10x.
China has reached almost everywhere especially in indo-pacific, South East Asia. China’s presence can openly be seen in Pakistan and covertly in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and India. To break it down very easily we need to understand following things. China has always been engaged into espionage overseas. It not only rely on cyber intelligence but on signal, human intelligence as well. The Xi front united intelligence group has been silently active across the world. Their core goal is to engage Chinese intelligence officers in several countries and settle them as localities in that particular region acting as sleeper cells so that when the time comes, these people will be engaged and readily available at every front worldwide. I am not sure if world’s biggest intellegensia’s have much knowledge about it. The China In Pakistan has been connected through CPEC. Chinese nationals have openly married Pakistani girls. China is flexing its muscles in east turkistan killing uyguir Muslims and Hans have been piosing as uyguirs and can be seen making vlogs all over social media making a paradigm that all is well in xhinjang region. In Bangladesh, China may have easily infiltrated through Buddhists of cox’s bazar who look like Chinese. In Myanmar, there is open presence of Chinese intelligence and military supporting the Burmese military dictator. In Tibet, Xi front may have been masquerading as monks to travel all the way from Tibet-India and elsewhere. In Nepal, they may have infiltrated easily in himalayan region piosing anywhere from gurkhas to any shopkeepers doing their day to day work. In India, Xi operarives may be present through North eastern part piosing as any tribal locals from this mountain region of India. Chinese operatives may be present in Ladakh too. I mean who knows it? Point is that this is the dream of any intelligence agency across the world to keep their strong covert presence but only China can make it 100% perfect and without creating any doubts. Coming back to China–Taiwan conflict, the US congressional research service declared that Chinese navy is now bigger than US Navy and there is no or less defence system made by US(as of now) to counter new hypersonic Chinese missiles. China on the other end fears that losing Taiwan means losing Tibet, east turkistan and Hong Kong. China has kept Naval bases, radar, communication bases, bridges, network centres, command centers, power centres and everything esle just buttons away in Taiwan . Their guided missiles would land on these important places in just few minutes. Taiwan being an island nation has kept everything in open and none of these important sites are hidden. On top of that China has and can jam much of the US communication channels that wouldn’t allow the US to understand the clear picture as what is actually going on. The other side would be defined as when US would respond to any attack on Taiwan by deploying aircraft carriers, subs from their Japan and gaum bases. So in total, there is Canadian and US navy near the strait of Taiwan with Japanese and Australian forces joining this full fullged attack on China. China readily has kept missiles to hit Gaum and Japan US bases while simultaneously attacking Taiwan at the same time. Chinese military advisors have always mentioned that defending Taiwan would save their himalayan border in South where they see India invading it or rebellion starting in Tibet at the same time taking advantage of this instability. The recent visit of speaker Nancy plosi sparked another row in between China and Taiwan. US troops are training taiwanese army on the ground. Despite war in Ukraine, US is firm strong to support this Asia Pacific nation against any Chinese threat. In every conflict or war, common people are made scapegoats at last. War would never resolve anything and even after any harsh Escalations, both nations would have to come on table for future negotiations.

Peace out! ☮☮

Muzamil Maqbool is Doctoral fellow of International relations and can be reached at connectmuzamil.maqbool@gmail.com