Contemporary world orders rests on interaction of various nation-states at multilateral forums with active involvement of Non state organizations at the centre. These organizations deeply influence the decision making of sovereign states and subsequently toe the tide towards issues confronted by humanity at large. Thus on one hand, there’s multilateralism on scene with the Chinese might on the other side of coin. The ideological division of world in middle of 20th century especially immediately after WWII created two poles of international scene. Though the main actors of ideologically opposite poles remained US AND USSR at the front, but the waves of capitalism and communism slowly and steadily swept major chunks in respective kits with crystal clear tilt towards capitalism or what we call “DEMOCRACY IN ECONOMICS”. It’s to be noted here that main concern was not democracy as such but the “OWNERSHIP AND DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES”. The debate is still there with predecessor words in fray now as neoliberalism etc. After seven or more decades, the connection of fault lines seems blurring with no clear results in anyone’s kit. The debate that was concluded by Fukuyama seems contradictory with Rise of China as super power in the fray. What were the factors responsible? What was the HIDDING factor of Deo Xi Peng? Whatsoever be the nature of questions, but the answer overtakes every argument in the line for ECONOMIC PROWESS of China as its might.
Napoleon’s saying goes “China is a sleeping giant; let it sleep for if it wakes it would shake the world”. The logical statement provides two qualities of Chinese dream with capacity at core to rule over international scene at the fore. Right from yore of Chinese civilization, the country remained stick to strengthening domestic capacities. Chinese innovative style of decision making provides a sea of amazing facts when realised through prism of historical significance. The introduction of paper currency, when would trade was barter round matter of exchange. Building of marvellous China wall to improve upon security front are ample examples of proof to historical claim. But the beginning of communist China came through efforts of Mao Xi Dong (Chinese name) with Tactic of Guirrella warfare,thus laying foundation of super power in making. The initial periods of Chinese politico economic structure remained deeply engaging in implementing the domestic policies with miniscule role at international level. Though the surprises like 1962 onslaught on India or that of Tibet are there, but to a broader level it abstained from issues confronting other nations. This phase is synonmous with phase of ISOLATIONISM of USA up to WWI. The 2nd phase of China started with arrival of Deo Xia Peng and subsequent entry into elite club of UNSC as permanent member. It’s point of mention that VETO POWER OF CHINA remained in cold chamber for maximum extent possible barring some extreme issues, that too for immediate importance to national interest.
Upto the secret of present strength -The Deng policy, the comparison with India seems in state of contrast. It’s the same stage of history when India started taking active role as emerging country at the front through NON -ALIGNMENT and tilt of pole position towards USSR. Whatever economic doles and handouts India got at the hands of USSR, the entry of India into international arena seems mixture of pros and cons but in stark contrast with Chinese comparison. It’s no more a surprising reality that 1950 of China India comparison puts the one and one economic and demographic structure of countries. What then distinguishes the same countries in present context? Is it communism or the leadership? The marking reality is in sympathy to leadership arrival of charismatic character on Chinese scene through Xia Peng and now Xi Jing Ping. The third stage of governance in both countries started with 70’s when Economic reforms were initiated in China with deep socialistic policy in India by Indira Gandhi in India (Garibi Hatoa) etc. The Chinese dream of ascendency was guided by policy of “HIDDING” of Peng’s theme of “calmly observe,hide capacity and bide time “. The policy guided China on every fora of national and international stature. This phase started dream of Chinese communism through initiation of Chinese communes. It’s no surprise that China is well ahead than socialist bended India where stark reality of teeming millions are embedded in poverty is black dot on success story of economy. This was because of late arrival of reforms in our case when the world was full of globalisation ideals all around the world.
Then onwards the neighbour traversed success ladder with leopards speed and came through obstacles to claim world power status in quick possible time. The contemporary orientation of phase started with present president Xi Jing Ping. After strengthening the domestic front,China started ambitious strategy to claim world power status whose manifestations is clearly visible all around us. World’s largest economy in PPP and 2nd largest in GDP is now on emphatic journey to give final polish for the status with Chinese dream of 2050 as global leader in Chinese version to super power in our version. Recent conclusion of Party’s Congress or communist congress in people’s hall laid down the path for last phase of China to claim the sobriquet. This congress included though of Xi in constitution and thus acclaimed him the same pole position to that of Deng and Xi Dong in Chinese history. To me the thought of XI is the SUPER POWER STATUS. This notion left the HIDDING capacity policy in lurch with slow and steady involvement in global issues confronting China. It is of no surprise that GLOBALISM IS BEING FAVOURED BY CHINA,its oft spoken rival in ideology a long ago which thrived on captalism.the ascendency of China is in sync with plans it initiated in recent years with BRI at its top to CPEC,STRING OF PEARLS AND SOUTH CHINA SEA CAPTURE as manifestations of that thought.
The economic superiority of China is clearly visible with slow and steady transformation of West dominated structure to China centered–AIIB and NDB and massive foreign reserves equivalent to that of Indian economy, Thanks to heavy export oriented strategy. The widespread trade deficit of almost all countries of world with China is nothing but economic skill of China that was developed throughout Deng period. The Chinese dream is on sight now, if analysed through prism of serious debates the rise is not peaceful at all. To door neighbours, the Chinese rise seems contrary to India’s hopes. The path traced by China and its race seems contradictory to democratic order. As an analogy South China sea capture and subsequent violation of ICJ ruling is stark reality. In fact the political policy of Economic projects is in contrast to India’s emergence. The CPEC is economic at the fore but hidden agenda of India’s string through Western sea lanes of Gawadar port. The economic projects of country includes political strategy at the core to improvise on global leadership status. The infrastructure of port development in Bangladesh,Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan is crystal clear policy to corner India with serious security dilemma in Indian ocean at the doors of country.
To better or worse the Chinese dream of world power status is on arrival with steep challenges ahead for India. The neighbours dream of global leadership runs contrary to regional interests. The NSC backlash and Masood Azhar issue are just the beginning of these challenges. Chinese intervention into issues now seems a parallel approach to that of India. The Dokhlam standoff speaks in louder tunes than our expectations. Almost every fora is influenced by our neighbour now ranging from regional to that of global say for example the three point solution of Rohingya crisis by China with abstention of India is providing it ample scope. The policy of India in years ahead seems bright but ambiguous when analysed at deeper level. Being at arm’s length with historical rivalry the country is going to face multi faceted challenges in the years ahead. The economic subordination with complete but complex interlinking with Chinese economy like dumping etc. The point of met ion here is the remembrance of fact that every colonial interest starts with trade. Here in the case of colonial is absent but subordination is sufficient. The security dilemma and subsequent rising of security cost through sophisticated weaponry etc. The Indian Ocean maritime security and border standoffs etc.3rd is The consistent anti- India stand at international fora like UNSC and NSC. The country would like to abstain India from getting the seat in any forum which improvises its stature. 4th is cornering of India through economic opportunities like diversion of tender to China by Sri Lanka etc. 5th is the complex integration of big powers with Chinese economy through ambitious projects like BRI. These projects will suck growth potentials of world and thus restricting India to get benefited. And much more like improvising on secret of policy making our nip and tuck lines of CHANAKAYA’S view “Enemies enemy is a friend” as Pakistan paradox, iron friend etc.The shaking phase of Napoleon thought is on its way with clear tilt towards us.
To end with a note ” Before acting see where did you stand”. The country stands at odds in international level amid global tide towards China,thanks to money power. Let’s not forget the moderate policy of SMART BALANCE to Smart power of Hillary Clinton by biding to “if cat isn’t catching the mouse,the method need to be changed to get caught the mouse itself”.there’s a need to improvise on 2nd front through soft power with push on G-TO-G, P-TO-P AND B-TO-B exchanges with national interest at base. The power of yoga and people exchange could open a new front on strategic leverage. The government of the day should shed the notion of Quad like groupings to contain the anti China feelings; this would pave way to serious dialogue with China on widely accepted PANCHSHEEL ideals to be partners In rise than parties in containment. The present century is ASIAN CENTURY with CHINA at top along with regional powers of 2nd front like India ,ASEAN and JAPANESE presence to name a few. Let’s hope to witness the peaceful rise of China as the rise is certain but peace seems in doldrums………..
Shahid Majeed Mir can be reached at mirshahid363@gmail.com
