India and Pakistan should immediately restore and permanently staff bilateral military hotlines. They should also consent to a UN-monitored commission to investigate the Pahalam attack, ensuring accountability and transparency while countering disinformation.
On April 22, 2025, five militants armed with M4 carbines and AK-47 rifles descended from the dense pine forests of Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. They opened fire on a group of unarmed tourists, killing 26 civilians and wounding over 20 others. Most of the victims were Hindu pilgrims, but there was also a Christian visitor and a local Muslim who was reportedly spared after identification checks by the assailants.
Initially, the Resistance Front—an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba—claimed responsibility for the attack but later retracted its statement. This unexpected withdrawal has raised suspicions of proxy engagement by Pakistani intelligence and highlighted failures on both sides of the Line of Control. This massacre, the deadliest civilian strike in the Valley since the 2008 Mumbai siege, highlighted the fragile security situation between the two nuclear neighbors. It exposed significant gaps in real-time threat detection, cross-border surveillance, and civilian protection protocols, paving the way for a new and dangerous phase in the 2025 India–Pakistan standoff.
In retaliation, the Government of India launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 6, 2025. The operation involved the deployment of high-BrahMos precision missiles, Rudram 1-1 surface-to-surface missiles, and MQ-Reaper 9 and Hermes 900 drones to strike nine locations across western Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, identified as training camps for Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed militants. Indian defense briefings emphasized that all targets were non-military and selected carefully to avoid damaging civilian infrastructure. Pakistan’s military spokesman, however, reported at least 19 civilian deaths—including women and children—injuries surpassing 46 and the destruction of six mosques, one rural medical clinic in the region of Muzaffarabad, a toll that illustrated both the precision and the perils of cross-border aerial warfare in densely populated areas.
Pakistan’s military response was swift and fierce. Islamabad claimed to have intercepted and shot down five Indian Air Force jets and detained several pilots. In contrast, New Delhi acknowledged only the loss of three aircraft—a MiG-29, a Su, and a 30MKI Jaguar—attributing these losses to technical malfunctions rather than enemy fire. Meanwhile, artillery exchanges along the contested Line of Control intensified dramatically, with both sides firing hundreds of mortar rounds daily. By the first week of May, at least twelve additional casualties were reported among soldiers and civilians on both fronts, and medical facilities in remote border villages struggled to cope with the influx of wounded. International commercial flights were forced to reroute hundreds of kilometers to avoid closed Pakistani airspace, local schools and businesses remained shuttered indefinitely, compounding economic distress in dependent communities on tourism and cross-border trade.
The longstanding Kashmir dispute, which dates back to the 1947 partition, has been further inflamed by wars in 1965 and 1999. It continues to resist resolution due to deep-seated mistrust, competing national narratives, and recurring militant insurgencies. Between 1989 and 2024, separatist violence, counterinsurgency efforts, and campaigns in Jammu and Kashmir resulted in approximately 14,930 civilian deaths, the elimination of over 23,386 militants, and the loss of 6,413 security personnel, according to the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs. Militants take advantage of socioeconomic grievances, porous mountain passes, and established networks to recruit new operatives. At the same time, domestic pressures and political tensions in both New Delhi and Islamabad have led to an increase in hardline rhetoric aimed at gaining electoral advantage. This has reduced the political space for compromise and fueled cycles of retaliation.
The global reaction was immediate and multifaceted. On May 8, 2025, the United Nations Secretary-General convened an emergency session of the Security Council, urging India and Pakistan to restore dedicated hotlines, rigorously observe the 2021 Line of Control ceasefire accord, and engage in direct dialogue under UN auspices to prevent miscalculations that could lead to catastrophic escalation. The United States offered to facilitate discreet backchannel talks and enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms to disrupt terrorist funding. The European Union and the United Kingdom released a joint communiqué condemning violence against civilians and urging a swift de-escalation. China highlighted its commitment to noninterference, promoting its offices as conducive to facilitating peaceful discussions. Meanwhile, Russia reaffirmed its preference for direct bilateral negotiations rather than third-party arbitration.
Given the entrenched stalemate and existential risks, a credible neutral mediator is essential. Norway, with its proven track record in facilitating dialogue in Sri Lanka, stands out as a suitable candidate for a UN-appointed special envoy. The United Arab Emirates, which maintains balanced diplomatic and economic ties with both New Delhi and Islamabad, is also a strong contender. Another country is Indonesia, which is a Non-Aligned country and a friend of both countries. Indonesia has a track record in facilitating as a bridge builder in the Cambodian Conflict, the Moro in the Philippines, and the South China Sea. Through structured Track II diplomacy, these envoys could convene retired generals, veteran diplomats, academic scholars, and civil and military leaders in discreet settings to gradually build trust. Proposed confidence-building measures include joint humanitarian initiatives, such as cross-LoC medical camps, environmental conservation projects in the Himalaya, and watershed infrastructure cooperative planning, that tangibly demonstrate mutual benefits and reduce mutual suspicions among border communities.
To conclude, in a consolidated framework of actionable steps, India and Pakistan should immediately restore and permanently staff bilateral military hotlines. They should also consent to a UN-monitored commission to investigate the Pahalgam attack, ensuring accountability and transparency while countering disinformation. Medium-term measures should include a phased liberalization of visa regimes for students, pilgrims, and business travelers. Additionally, the formation of a joint financial task force is necessary to identify and dismantle transnational terror-financing networks.
Finally, there should be a gradual resumption of bilateral trade fairs, sports tournaments, and academic conferences to foster interpersonal ties; long-term strategic priorities require third-party-facilitated negotiations to determine the final status of Kashmir, the 2021 ceasefire should be converted into a binding treaty, and a regional security architecture should be institutionalized under the auspices of SAARC and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Together, we must combat terrorism, promote economic integration, and transform this historic flashpoint into a zone of shared cooperation and prosperity.
