Conditions remain largely unchanged, but confidence has strengthened — chances of a strong Western Disturbance now stand near 95%. In fact, I believe weather models are underestimating the strength of this system.
The Western Disturbance is set to begin impacting higher reaches of North Kashmir from this afternoon. By night hours, most parts of Jammu & Kashmir will come under its influence.
There is a very high probability of widespread snowfall across Kashmir plains, along with parts of Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua.
Although the system itself will weaken within 24 hours, snowfall rates during this window are expected to be intense, supported by exceptionally high moisture availability.
The peak impact period will be from tonight through tomorrow late afternoon, though rain/snow may linger in some areas until the morning of 24 January.
From tonight onward, J&K’s atmosphere is expected to undergo a reset. A cold wave and prolonged cold conditions are likely to take hold, with true winter conditions prevailing through the remainder of the month.
Snow depth in plains will depend heavily on snow density:
- Under dry snow conditions, accumulations may range from 4 inches to as much as 2 feet, with higher totals near the Pir Panjal belt, especially Shopian district.
- Under wet snow, accumulations may stay between 3 inches and 1.5 feet.
- Higher reaches could see 2 to 4 feet of fresh snowfall.
Across Jammu plains, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected.
The system may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts.
Travel disruptions are likely on 23 January, with flights, trains and road connectivity potentially affected.
Forecast Insights: Kashmir Weather
