Fruit, Nuts and Free Trade: Is Kashmir Paying the Price of Global Deals?
The Colony of the Condemned
Our Fruit & Nut Story
By Nasir Hamid Khan
The “Fact Sheet” released by the White House on February 9 outlined what appears to be a transformative trade framework between India and the United States.
Among its key points:
- India will open its vast market of over 1.4 billion people to American products.
- Both nations will work toward an Interim Agreement leading to a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
- Under the section titled “Liberating America from Unfair Trade Practices,” President Donald Trump asserted that American workers and businesses would no longer tolerate trade arrangements that allegedly disadvantaged them for decades.
India today stands as the world’s fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP and third-largest by Purchasing Power Parity—behind only the United States and China. Yet, we are accused of maintaining “some of the highest tariffs” and imposing “protectionist non-tariff barriers.”
If sectors were protected for decades, there must have been reasons rooted in economic sovereignty and domestic stability. The tone of these accusations feels familiar—condescending, almost instructive.
At least the British were polite in the beginning.
History’s Warning
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” wrote philosopher George Santayana.
In the 17th century, India had surpassed China as the world’s leading economic powerhouse, built on textiles, agriculture, and a sophisticated administrative system—until the arrival of the East India Company.
Economist Utsa Patnaik estimated in her 2018 research that Britain extracted nearly $45 trillion from India between 1765 and 1938 through tax policies and trade manipulation. Duties as high as 70–80% were imposed on Indian textiles. The Calico Acts banned Indian fabrics in England, while British goods entered India with negligible tariffs.
India was systematically transformed from a manufacturing giant into a supplier of raw materials.
In 1857, sepoys revolted, stormed the Red Fort, and declared Bahadur Shah Zafar Emperor of India. The Crown responded with direct rule under the Government of India Act 1858.
Divide and rule became policy.
In 1928, the Simon Commission arrived. The slogan “Simon Go Back” was coined by revolutionary Yusuf Meherally, who later also gave us “Quit India.”
History reminds us: trade policy is rarely neutral. It can be an instrument of influence—and sometimes, control.
A Deal of Unequals?
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, in his article “Deal of Unequals: India’s Pain; Trump’s Gain,” warned that the agreement could haunt India for decades.
American leaders hail it as a victory for their farmers. Indian farmers are reassured that their “interests are protected.”
Yet numbers tell another story. With rising debt burdens, climate pressures, and nearly 400,000 farmer suicides reported between 1995 and 2023, rural India is already vulnerable. Any destabilizing shock could deepen distress.
🍎 Fruit & Nuts: Kashmir’s Reality
For Kashmir, the implications are particularly alarming.
Our apples, pears, cherries, apricots, strawberries, plums, peaches, walnuts, and almonds may soon face intensified competition from heavily mechanized and globally branded producers.
Apple growers had demanded import duties be raised from 50% to 100%. Instead, reports suggest duties were reduced—to 25% for imports from the U.S. and New Zealand, and 20% under the EU deal.
Kashmir produces nearly 95% of India’s walnuts. Around 89,000 hectares across Kupwara, Shopian, Baramulla, and Anantnag support walnut cultivation. More than seven lakh people depend directly or indirectly on this sector.
Kashmiri walnuts are richer in oil content and nutritionally superior. Yet imported hybrids dominate shelves because of uniform size, lighter color, mechanized processing, and sophisticated packaging.
In 2025 alone, five individuals reportedly lost their lives and dozens suffered severe injuries during walnut harvesting—tragic reminders of outdated practices and limited modernization.
The global walnut industry is valued at over $9 billion. Kashmir, despite ideal climate and fertile soil, remains largely traditional in a fiercely modern marketplace.
This year’s budget proposes rejuvenating old orchards and promoting high-density cultivation. But policy continuity, technological adoption, value addition, branding, and export diversification are equally critical.
Without these, free trade does not create opportunity—it creates vulnerability.
Compete or Comply?
As a Kashmiri deeply attached to this soil, the anxiety is real.
We do not fear competition. We fear uneven competition.
History shows that trade agreements between unequal partners can alter destinies—not always in favor of the weaker side. Economic decisions made in distant capitals can reshape orchards, livelihoods, and generational futures here in the Valley.
Trade shapes destiny.
The question before us is simple:
Will we compete with preparation and innovation?
Or will we comply and become spectators in our own marketplace?
History has warned us before.
This time, we must listen.
Nasir Hamid Khan
Former Senior Vice President
Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry
📧 sunfresh1102@gmail.com
📞 9419 00 0001
