New Delhi, May 30: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country is likely to receive below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall during the June-September season this year, while warning of above-normal heatwave days in several states during June.
In its updated long-range forecast issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the IMD said the monsoon seasonal rainfall during 2026 is likely to be around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of plus or minus 4 percent.
The LPA for the monsoon season based on 1971-2020 data is 87 cm.
According to the forecast, there is an 84 per cent probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall across the country during the monsoon season.
The IMD said below-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of northwest and northeast India, eastern parts of peninsular India and adjoining east-central regions, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
The weather agency warned that below-normal rainfall may create challenges for agriculture, drinking water supply, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability.
It may also increase the risks of drought and heat stress in several regions.
For June 2026, rainfall across the country is also expected to remain below normal at less than 92 percent of the Long Period Average.
However, some parts of northwest and northeast India and several areas of south peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The IMD further said above-normal heatwave days are expected during June over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are also likely to witness more heatwave days than usual.
However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to see below-normal heatwave days during the month.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences said above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during June.
The IMD noted that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific are currently transitioning towards El Nino conditions, which are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to continue during the monsoon period.
The weather office advised state governments and district administrations to take necessary preparedness measures to deal with possible heatwave conditions, including ensuring safe drinking water, operational cooling shelters and stronger health surveillance systems.
The IMD also urged people to remain hydrated, avoid exposure during peak afternoon hours and take special care of vulnerable individuals, including children, elderly people and outdoor workers. The department said it will issue the forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June 2026.
