Mushtaq Bala
The National Conference (NC), under the leadership of Omar Abdullah, has once again cemented its position as a formidable political force in Jammu and Kashmir, winning the 2024 legislative assembly elections. Its landslide victory has reasserted its dominance in the region’s political landscape, a development that has inevitably drawn the attention of the central government. This has sparked speculation on whether New Delhi is actively seeking an alternative political party to counter the NC’s growing popularity.
The Roots of the Speculation
The political relationship between the National Conference and the central government has historically been one of cautious cooperation and occasional tension. Despite the NC’s long-standing commitment to democratic principles, its assertive stance on Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and autonomy has often placed it at odds with the ruling parties at the center. With Omar Abdullah now at the helm, the party’s resurgence seems to have further energized its grassroots support, posing a challenge to political parties allied with the central government.
The question arises: will the central government invest in nurturing an alternative political force to dilute the NC’s influence? The strategy would not be unprecedented. In the past, New Delhi has supported political factions and coalitions to diversify the region’s political fabric. Examples include the creation of alliances like the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) and the rise of the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP), viewed by some as attempts to dilute the influence of traditional powerhouses like the NC and the PDP.
The Recent Political Climate
The October 2024 elections saw the NC securing a decisive majority, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies faced a severe setback. This outcome reflects the electorate’s trust in NC’s leadership amidst a politically charged atmosphere, where issues like the abrogation of Article 370, unemployment, and development dominated public discourse. Omar Abdullah’s narrative of reconciliation, regional identity, and economic rejuvenation clearly resonated with voters, leaving rivals searching for relevance.
In contrast, newer players like the JKAP and traditional competitors like the PDP failed to capture the public’s imagination. This has left a void for any potential alternative to emerge—a space the central government might be eager to fill.
Challenges for the Central Government
If New Delhi does intend to sponsor an alternative political front, it faces several hurdles:
Credibility Crisis: Many political formations perceived as being backed by the center have struggled to gain grassroots acceptance. Voters in J&K are acutely aware of political maneuvering, often leading to skepticism about parties seen as mere extensions of central interests.
Unified Regional Sentiments: The NC has positioned itself as a defender of Kashmir’s identity and autonomy, themes deeply embedded in the region’s political psyche. Any alternative party would need a compelling narrative to counter the NC’s stronghold on these sentiments.
Leadership Void: Creating a credible alternative requires charismatic leadership capable of rallying diverse communities across the region. The current political landscape lacks such figures with widespread appeal.
Possibilities Ahead
While it is unclear whether the central government will take active steps to promote an alternative party, it may adopt other strategies, such as:
Strengthening alliances with existing regional parties like the JKAP.
Encouraging independent candidates or factions within the NC to break ranks.
Leveraging economic and developmental initiatives to win the hearts of voters directly, bypassing traditional political entities.
Promoting the Hurriyat Conference, led by Molvi Omar Farooq, as a Counterweight:A surprising possibility could be the revival and subtle promotion of the much-criticized Hurriyat Conference, led by Molvi Omar Farooq. This separatist-leaning group, once sidelined due to its association with anti-India narratives, could be leveraged as a political player to fragment the NC’s influence. By softening Hurriyat’s image and encouraging its participation in mainstream politics, New Delhi could attempt to divide the regional vote bank. However, such a move would come with significant risks, including alienating mainstream voters and legitimizing a controversial entity that has historically been viewed as a destabilizing force.
Conclusion
The central government’s response to the NC’s renewed dominance will significantly shape the future of Jammu and Kashmir’s political trajectory. Whether it opts to support an alternative party like the JKAP, promote factions within the NC, or even consider the controversial step of mainstreaming the Hurriyat Conference, remains to be seen.
What is certain, however, is that the people of Jammu and Kashmir, with their heightened political awareness, will continue to play a decisive role in shaping their political future. As the dynamics evolve, the region’s governance and aspirations will be closely watched not only by New Delhi but by the international community as well.
Mushtaq Bala is an Editor-In-Chief of Kashmir Pen, can be reached at mushtaqabala@gmail.com