Jammu & Kashmir Lok SabhaElections – 2024, Jammu and Kashmir with Phase 4 of the Lok Sabha Electioncycle approaching, anticipation is high as voters prepare to exercise their democratic rights.

Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, the Union Territories bifurcated from the legacy border State of J&K, are among the few States/UTs where polling is taking place across many phases. The constituencies in Jammu have already voted in the first and second phases while elections have been postponed from the third to the sixth phase in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. While the turnout in Udhampur (68.27%) and Jammu (72.22%) were encouraging and more or less in line with the participation figures of 2019, it would be an achievement for Indian democracy if voters turned out in good numbers in constituencies in the Kashmir Valley. The turnout figures for Srinagar (14.43%), Anantnag (8.49%) and Baramulla (34.6%) were among the lowest in the country. This was largely due to a sense of disillusionment among the electorate over the dissolution of the erstwhile State’s Assembly. Since 2019, the Valley has been subject to persistent central rule that has led to phases of severe repression followed by attempts to rejig its polity and electoral map. The abrogation of special status for the erstwhile State and the continuance of J&K as a UT have not helped reverse the alienation. But the polls could provide a platform for the disenchanted electorate to air their grievances in the form of a decisive mandate.
The enduring distrust between the Kashmiri polity and New Delhi also explains why the traditional parties in the former have sought to oppose the postponement of the polls in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, ostensibly due to weather conditions. But the mainstream Kashmiri polity including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) that came together with others to form the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration could not unite and contest as one in the Lok Sabha elections. The NC and PDP have revived their political hostilities in the Valley; the former is in alliance with the Congress as part of the INDIA bloc. As for the Bharatiya Janata Party, its triumphal talk of “unifying” the country by abrogating J&K’s special status sounds hollow: it has limited its contest to the Hindu-majority Jammu and Buddhist-majority Ladakh. In Ladakh, the campaign led by activist Sonam Wangchuk has brought the question of Statehood and environmental concerns to the fore. But that has not been enough to rev up the Opposition. The Congress and NC could not come up with a consensus candidate for the Ladakh constituency that includes the Leh and Kargil areas, leading to the Congress fielding a candidate from Leh, while the Kargil units of both parties are supporting an independent from that area.
The BJP, by setting a target of 370 Lok Sabha seats, has already made Article 370 a key election issue. The party has worked hard to build a positive narrative around its decision, but has stayed away from contesting on any of the three seats in Kashmir.
NDA partners Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party will contest 2 seats (Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri) while Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference has fielded a candidate from Baramullah.
The BJP will be fighting from Jammu and Udhampur.
Article 370 of the constitution, giving special status to Jammu and Kashmir, was scrapped in a decision by the central government on August 5, 2019.It led to some major changes in J&K both geographically and politically.
One significant change was the recognition of Ladakh as a separate Union Territory due to which Jammu and Kashmir is now represented by 5 seats as opposed to 6 till the previous general election.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 3 seats while Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) won the other three. Ladakh, which was a BJP stronghold, is now a separate UT. This leaves BJP to fight against the local powers to maintain its stronghold in J&K.
The BJP dominates the state when it comes to vote share with 46.39%. While the JKNC holds 7.89% vote share.
Meanwhile, in the 2014 elections, the BJP came into majority for the first time since the 1999 elections with 32.36% vote share while JKPDP trailed with 20.54% vote share.
Congress holds the second largest vote share in J&K but has not been able to secure any seat in the past two elections.
AN ELECTION AGENDA
When Article 370 was removed, the central ruling party rejoiced but the local parties opposed the move and vowed to fight against the decision.
However, the Supreme Court also ruled in favour of the Central government’s decision.
JKPDP president Mehbooba Mufti has opposed the abrogation by calling it illegal and undemocratic. Echoing the sentiment, JKNC vice president Omar Abdullah has said the abrogation has no justification.
With an aim to bring up this issue in the elections, several J&K parties that have sought restoration of Article 370 banded together to form an alliance.
People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), a coalition comprising five parties from the Valley, is advocating for the reinstatement of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. Alongside the NC and PDP, the PAGD also includes the CPI(M) and Khalida Shah’s Awami National Conference.
INDIA bloc is another alliance that comes into the battle this year.
The alliance of several political parties to fight against the BJP also comes into play in Jammu and Kashmir.
Both NC and PDP have opposed the removal of special status for J&K and are partners in the INDIA bloc. However, they’ll still go head-to-head on three seats in the state as PDP’s head Mehbooba Mufti claims having “no option”.
WILL LADAKH CHANGE THE POWER DYNAMICS IN 2024?
Ladakh, previously part of Jammu and Kashmir, now stands as a Union Territory without an assembly. The region had four representatives in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. Currently, Ladakh has a single Lok Sabha constituency.
Ladakh has been a major contributing factor to the BJP’s dominance in J&K as the saffron party has been getting a major vote share from the constituency (now a separate UT).
In the 2019 elections, the BJP had 33.94% vote share while in 2014 it had 26.36% vote share.
Now that Ladakh is a separate Union Territory with its own representation in Parliament, it leaves the question as to where BJP stands when it comes to J&K.
Meanwhile, Ladakh is also facing its own challenges with Sonam Wangchuk leading a protest demanding statehood and protection of the ecology in the area with thousands supporting the movement.
In simpler words, the elections of J&K could come down to how the voters feel about Article 370 and the special status that the state enjoyed in the past.
Voters from Jammu and Kashmir are voting in five phases with voting in Udhampur constituency having concluded on April 19, and in Jammu on April 26. The overall elections in the state will conclude with Anantnag- Rajouri constituency whose polling was rescheduled from May 6 to May 25. The people of Ladakh will vote in a single phase on May 20 for one seat.