It is said that when strategies fail to seek clear ends, policy drifts towards confrontation. Our policy on Kashmir is very clear and Kashmir stands out as our vital national interest. Academically speaking, if a vital interest is threatened, hurt or damaged it results in very serious harm to the nation and that is why strong measures including the use of force are recommended to be employed to safeguard and protect it. Realistically speaking, Kashmir being the bone of contention between India and Pakistan stands out as vital interest both for India & Pakistan. Unwilling to compromise on the issue, both countries are locked in an unrelenting state of political deadlock. This deadlock has over the years done little to make any meaningful headway in the lives of the Kashmiris who have been waiting to exercise their rights of self-determination for over seven decades now. The end that Pakistan seeks in the Kashmir conflict is the end that the UN General Assembly advocated for the resolution of this dispute.
The life of the current Indian Kashmir strategy is likely to be short. It is even being predicted that Prime Minister Modi may lift the curfew before he addresses the UN General Assembly and even may announce an economic reform package for the locked-down occupied territory. Whatever may be the timings of lifting the curfew, the locking down and bringing life to a standstill in occupied Kashmir cannot go on forever.
The UN General Assembly meets at a time when the security environment in the world is high on intimidations, bullying and threats and low on expectations, collaborations, and cooperation. The Indo-Pak standoff on Kashmir is clearly signaling the risks of a nuclear conflict. Saudi oil facilities have been hit with the drone attacks and nobody knows when and where another such attack may materialize and how the “Peninsula Shield Force”, the military arm of the GCC, or the US may react. The most disturbing contradiction is in the foreign policy of the existing superpower, the US, and the rising power, China. While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo termed the drone attacks on the Saudi oil infrastructure as “an act of war” and suggested Iran is the culprit, China announced an investment of $280 billion in the Iranian oil gas and petrochemical sectors on the occasion of its Foreign Minister’s visit to Iran a few days back. There are clear indications that rival blocks of aligned states are fast taking shape and preparing for an armed struggle to hold the balance of power in their respective regions.
As the world leaders gather at the UN General Assembly, President Trump must make a clear choice. He can either continue his election promises of “dealing with his own problems and letting others deal with theirs the best they can” or utilise the power that makes America great to resolve outstanding conflicts like Kashmir. The flow of oil from the Gulf region must also not stop as this will only damage the global economy and would surely threaten US economic prosperity as well.
President Trump has his work cut out. He can go down in history as the president that engaged in peace talks and crisis diplomacy simultaneously on three fronts — Kashmir, Iran, and Afghanistan, or he may also end up getting ticked as another US wartime president who presided over wars that could have easily been prevented and which America should never have fought.
Both the Pakistani and Indian prime ministers will be addressing the UNGA on Sept 27. The leaders gathered there will be interested in hearing them. Not that they are unaware of what has been happening in the occupied territory and the danger of the conflict turning into a wider conflagration. The time is ticking and unfortunately for the US President and the world, this time around a conflict also showcases a nuclear ticking clock.
