Rayees Masroor
Population is not merely a numerical expression of how many people inhabit a geographical area or a territory. It represents a society’s continuity, its human resources, cultural inheritance, economic potential and intergenerational relationships. Population growth, when supported by adequate resources, opportunities and institutions, contributes to social and economic development. However, a sustained decline in fertility, particularly when accompanied by increasing life expectancy can gradually alter the demographic structure of a society.
Marriage, in this context, is an important social institution. Beyond its religious and legal dimensions, it provides a framework for companionship, emotional security, family formation and the nurturing of future generations. From an Islamic perspective, marriage is regarded as a solemn bond and a source of tranquillity, affection and mercy. The Quran describes the creation of spouses as a sign of divine wisdom, emphasising love and compassion between them. Philosophically, family represents one of the oldest foundations of social organisation, connecting generations through shared responsibilities, values and relationships.
In Kashmir, however, changing social and economic circumstances have begun to influence marriage patterns, family preferences and reproductive behaviour. Delayed marriages, financial uncertainty and the growing preference for smaller families are increasingly relevant to the region’s demographic transition.
A comparative assessment of health and demographic indicators published in September 2026, and attributed to NITI Aayog reported J&K’s Total Fertility Rate at 1.4 children per woman against the national average of 1.9. However, this figure reflects the earlier National Family Health Survey-5 of survey period (2019–21). The more recent NFHS-6 (2023–24) presents an improved picture, placing J&K’s fertility rate at 1.8 compared with approximately 2.0 nationally. Despite this improvement J&K remains below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
The Sample Registration System or SRS Bulletin 2024 provides another important dimension. J&K recorded a crude birth rate of 14.6 births per 1000 population compared with India’s 18.3. Its natural population growth rate was 9.2 per 1,000 against the national average of 11.9.
These indicators collectively demonstrate that J&K’s population is growing at a comparatively slower pace.
The reasons are multifaceted and cannot be attributed to a single social or medical factor.
Delayed marriages are among the important considerations. Prolonged education, career aspirations, unemployment and economic insecurity have influenced the age at which young people consider marriage. The increasing cost of weddings, extravagant social expectations and financial pressures further complicate family formation.
Changing lifestyles, urbanisation, nuclear family arrangements and the preference for one or two children have also influenced reproductive choices. Awareness and access to contraception have also enabled couples to plan their families and limit their children to one or two only.
Reproductive health deserves attention too. Hormonal disorders, obesity, sedentary lifestyles, stress and certain medical conditions can affect individual fertility. A January 2026 paper titled Declining Fertility in Kashmir: Magnitude, Causes, and Implications also identifies delayed marriages, voluntary bachelorhood, divorce and socioeconomic pressures among factors requiring examination.
Perhaps the most significant finding of NFHS-6 concerns population ageing. The proportion of J&K’s population aged 60 years and above has increased from 9.5 per cent in NFHS-5 to 11.9 per cent in NFHS-6.
Persistently low fertility, if accompanied by increasing longevity, can gradually reduce the proportion of younger people in the population. Over time, this may affect the available workforce, increase the dependency burden and place additional demands on healthcare, pensions and elderly care.It can also reshape family structures, particularly where fewer children are available to share the responsibilities of caring for ageing parents,although these are potential long-term consequences.
Kashmir’s demographic transition deserves informed public discussion rather than alarmist interpretations. Marriage should not be reduced to a demographic instrument nor should women’s education, employment or personal choices be viewed as obstacles to population growth. The real challenge is to create social and economic conditions in which young people can establish families without facing unreasonable financial, cultural or institutional pressures.
The government, religious scholars, educational institutions and civil society must collectively address unemployment, affordable housing, extravagant marriage practices and gaps in reproductive healthcare.Ultimately, demographic sustainability is not simply about producing more children. It is about building a society in which families are secure, children are valued, women enjoy dignity and older generations receive care. Kashmir must recognise this changing demographic reality and prepare for its social and economic implications with evidence, sensitivity and foresight.
Rayees Masroor is an educationist and columnist based in north Kashmir.He writes extensively on educational, social and youth related issues.He can be reached at rayeesmasroor111@gmail.com
