By Prof. G.M.Athar
The 99 year lease of British India to the leadership of Indian National Congress and Indian Muslim League in mid-August 1947 created the conditions for geopolitical competition between the newly created countries of India and Pakistan in the 565 princely states of Indian Subcontinent. Most of the princely states were incorporated in India or Pakistan on the basis of principles of geographical contiguity and religious composition of their population as laid down in the Indian Independence Act of July 1948. However, the former Dogra princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was located in the immediate neighborhood of both India and Pakistan and it was a Muslim majority state but ruled by a Hindu ruler. Since the British Crown had signed a Treaty with the princes in 1858 under which they were recognized as the sovereign allies of the British Crown. Indian Independence Act of July 1947 had upheld thatTreaty and had granted the rulers of the princely states the authority to exercise the option of even remaining independent of the dominions of India and Pakistan with proper arrangements for defence, communication and foreign affairs which used to be under the control of British India Government before the lapse of British paramountcy in the Indian subcontinent on 15th August 1947.
GENESIS OF INDIA-PAKISTAN DISPUTE OVER KASHMIR:-
In order to continue his autocratic rule and maintain the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, its last Dogra ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh wanted to stay independent. He sent Standstill Agreement through an identical telegram to both India and Pakistan on 12th August 1947. The Government of Pakistan accepted the Standstill Agreement in principle pending details on16th August 1947, but the Government of India suggested to Maharaja Hari Singh the deputation of some cabinet minister of Jammu and Kashmir to New Delhi to discuss the details of the Standstill Agreement with the Government of India. Maharaja Hari Singh was in no haste to commit himself much to New Delhi because the transport, communication, trade and commerce of Jammu and Kashmir was mostly with Pakistan before the partition of the British India. Meanwhile the tribals from the North Western Frontier Province of Pakistan raided Kashmir on 22nd October 1947 and the rebels in Poonch-Mirpur declared the establishment of Azad Government of Jammu and Kashmir under the leadership of Sardar Mohmad Ibrahim Khan on 24th October 1947. The deteriorating security situation in Jammu and Kashmir compelled Maharaja Hari Singh on 24th October 1947 to ask for military support from the Government of India but New Delhi demanded prior accession of Jammu and Kashmir with India. Maharaja Hari Singh was thus forced by the circumstances to submit the Instrument of Accession of Jammu and Kashmir State with Indian Union with respect to defence foreign affairs and communication on 26th October 1947. The next day early in the morning the Indian troops landed at Srinagar Airport to drag out the tribal invaders from Kashmir.
MUTUAL UNDERSTAND OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON JAMMU AND KASHMIR:-
On 31st December1947 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru referred the military conflict in Kashmir between India and Pakistan to the United Nations for its peaceful resolution because at that point of time both Indian and Pakistani army was commanded by the British Army Officers who were not prepared to fight a war on Kashmir between themselves.The Kashmir Question was discussed in the United Nations Security Council on 6th January 1948 and the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) was appointed to monitor the situation in Jammu and Kashmir. On 21st April 1948 the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution recommending the withdrawal of its forces by Pakistan from the territory of Jammu and Kashmir; reduction of forces to an optimum level by India to maintain law and order in the state ;and the conduct of two-option plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir under the supervision of United Nations to determine whether the people of former princely state want to live with India or join Pakistan. Pakistan refused to demilitarise the territory of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. The UNCIP was successful just in motivating India and Pakistan to enforce Cease Fireire Line in Jammu and Kashmir State on 1st January 1949 which was formally accepted by the two countries under the Karachi Agreement on 10th March 1949.The Cease Fire Line between India and Pakistan in fact reflected the understanding of the ground reality in Jammu and Kashmir as well as the geopolitical interests of the world powers in the disputed region by the political leadership of the two countries, because on 13th August 1948 the United Nations Security Council had passed a resolution calling for people’s right of self-determination which included the option of an independent Jammu and Kashmir as well. Sir Zafarullah Khan Foreign Affairs Minister of Pakistan had moved an application to the United Nations Security Council to modify the 13th August 1948 resolution on Jammu and Kashmir. India had maintained the criminal silence over it, although in its application to the United Nations on 5th January 1948, its plea was the right of self-determination for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to decide whether they want to stay with India, join Pakistan or establish an independent country. The United Nations Security Council passed a fresh resolution on 5th January 1949 substituting the people’s right of self-determination (which meant independent country as well as clarified by the UNSC) by the two-option plebiscite in the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir to determine whether the people want to stay with India or join Pakistan. The Cease Fire Line between India and Pakistan was therefore result of Jawaharlal Nehru’s assessment that the Buddhist majority Ladakh region, Hindu majority Jammu region and the pro-National Conference Kashmir region was the actual territory on which India can have a moral claim and the Muslims of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan were the supporters of Pro-Pakistan Muslim Conference on which India had no moral claim from the democratic point of view. An Independent Jammu and Kashmir was supposed to serve the Cold War interests of the West so both India and Pakistan were ready to have mutual consensus to divide the disputed territory between themselves but keeping the people of Jammu and Kashmir and the world community in dark by not opposing the UN Resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir State. The two countries also divided the water resources of the Indus Basin under the Indus Water Treaty in September1960 under which water user rights of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers were awarded to Pakistan and India retained its control over the water of Ravi, Bias and Satluj rivers. Even after fighting a war in 1965 the Tashkent Agreement between the two countries in 1966 didn’t touch the Cease Fire Line or Indus Water Treaty because these served the purpose of both India and Pakistan. Similarly, after the India-Pakistan War in 1971 the two countries signed the Shimla Agreement without touching the Indus Water Treaty but with regard to the Cease Fire Line and UN Resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir the two countries moved more closer to each other by naming bilaterally the internationally mediated CFL, as the Line of Control and resolving to find out the solution for Kashmir issue through bilateral negotiations, thereby reducing the status of an internationally recognized dispute to a bilateral issue.
POLITICISATION OF KASHMIR BY INDIA AND PAKISTAN:-
Kashmir issue has been domestically politicised by the political leadership in both India and Pakistan to retain their control over political power. In Pakistan even the military establishment has used Kashmir issue to not only bargain for more powers with the civilian government but even to overthrow the elected governments by using the Kashmir card. General Parvaiz Musharraf wanted to reach Islamabad via Kargil route. After the nuclerisation of India and Pakistan in 1998 the situation has completely changed in the Indian subcontinent. The nuclear deterrent available with India and Pakistan has eliminated the chances of a decisive war between the two countries.They can go for localized confrontations like Kargil War in 1999 and the Balakote surgical strikes in 2019 but the possibility of a full-fledged war between them to change the status quo along the Line of Control is very much limited. So after becoming the nuclear weapon states, India or Pakistan can ill-afford to change the status quo along the Line of Control unilaterally.The two countries are not prepared for any such negotiated settlement of Kashmir problem which requires surrendering of any part of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir under their control. So it would be better to consider the 72 year old Cease Fire Line/ Line of Control as an international border between India and Pakistan in the divided state of Jammu and Kashmir. Without realizing the substantial gains on the Kashmir front political leadership in the two countries can ill-afford to bake political cakes on Kashmir for long. A misadventure by any of the two countries can destroy not only the Indian subcontinent but it can result into a big global disaster as well. That is why since Kargil War in 1999 the World Community is stressing upon the bilateral engagement between the two countries. After the abrogation of special status of Jammu and Kashmir State and it’s bifurcation into the Ladakh Union Territory and Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory, the United Nations Security Council had three indoor meetings but every time it stressed the need for Indo-Pak bilateral engagement to resolve the Kashmir conflict. During the Kargil War in 1999 and Balakote surgical strikes in 2019 the United Nations stressed upon both India and Pakistan to maintain the sanctity of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. It is a clear indication that the Line of Control dividing the territory of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan has acquired the respectability of an international border between the two countries. So in spite of making emotional speeches and expressing their rhetoric the Indian and Pakistani leadership can achieve nothing on the Kashmir front except for befooling their respective electorate for sometime in the name of Kashmir.
The author can be reached at ghathar@yahoo.co.in
