Prof. G.M. Athar
Pakistan and India are the two immediate neighbours of Kashmir. The Kashmiri nationalists have no option to establish an independent country because both India and Pakistan are against such an option for Kashmir. The failure of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front in its political struggle from 1966 to establish an independent country is primarily due to the geographical location of Kashmir. Only an international political pressure can compel India and Pakistan to demilitarise the disputed territory of former Jammu and Kashmir State.Therefore, there are only two options left with the people of Kashmir: either to ally with Pakistan to challenge the Indian control over Muslim areas of Kashmir Province, Kargil Sub-District, Chenab Valley and Pirpanjal Region or to ally with India to challenge the Pakistani control over Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.Thus the National Conference, Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist) People’s Democratic Party, People’s Conference, People’s Democratic Front, Awami Itihad Party and some other parties have thrived in Kashmir since 1939 because of their pro-India agenda. The Muslim Conference, Jamaat-i-Islami, Jamiat Tulba, Islamic Students League, Hizbul Mujahideen, Muslim League and Hurriat Conference are the traditional political parties and political groups in Kashmir that have thrived with the Pakistani support in Kashmir since 1942. years.
It would be wrong to evaluate the balance of power between India and Pakistan on the basis of their geographical area, demographic size, gross domestic product and defence capabilities, because the nation-states are not the actual units of the measurement of the power of a country. The actual balance of power of a nation-state has to be evaluated on the basis of great power alliance to which it belongs to at a definite point of time. Historically speaking, during the period of the Great Game in the nineteenth century the British Empire and Czarist Russia Empire were two such great powers. In the first half of the twentieth century during World War I and II Axis Powers such as Germany, Italy, Russia/Soviet Union and Japan formed one Bloc and the Allied Powers such as the United Kingdom, United States, France and other European countries formed the other Bloc. During the Cold War period from 1945 to 1989 the United States of America represented the Capitalist Bloc and the former Soviet Union represented the Socialist Bloc. Although there was a so-called Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) of the developing countries who had recently liberated themselves from European colonialism, in reality most of these countries were dependent on one of the two power Blocs for financial aid, investment, defence technology, food and political support. During the Post-Cold War period the NATO members led by the United States of America and the adversaries of NATO countries such as China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan constitute the other Bloc which some scholars prefer to call the Eastern Alliance.
The immediate neighbours of Kashmir i.e. India and Pakistan are yet to have a clear foreign policy with respect to these two great power Blocs. For example the Pakistan army has historically allied with the United States of America but has developed a very close relationship with China since 1963. Pakistan is trying to strengthen its relationship with Russia as well. Pakistan is the only declared nuclear power member of the Organisation of Islamic Conference which includes both pro-America Saudi Arabia and the anti-America Iran. Similarly, India has been a champion of Non-Aligned Movement but was having a close relationship with the former Soviet Union. Following the disintegration of former Soviet Union in 1991, India maintained its relationship with Russia on the one hand but at the same time improved its relationship with the United States of America, France, Germany and Israel in particular. On the one hand India is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation led by China but on the other hand it is a member of the QUAD led by the United States of America. The members of the BRICS which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa want to establish a new economic order to challenge the US Dollar in the International economy to resist the economic policies of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.Therefore, how much powerful are India and Pakistan in terms of their great power support is yet a mystery to be unfolded.
The pro-independence Kashmiri nationalists active in Kashmir, Azad Kashmir, Europe and North America can seek the support of the democratic countries of the World in general and Europe and North America in particular to support the right of national self-determination for the Kashmiri nation to mount political pressure on India and Pakistan to address the Kashmir issue as per the wishes of the people of the former Jammu and Kashmir State. It is very unlikely that given the geostrategic location of Pakistan and the huge market of India, any democratic country would geopardise its geoplitical, geostrategic and geo-economic interests in the Western High Asia. That is why the United Nations Security Council has failed in its obligations to secure the right of self-determination for the Kashmiri nation over the past 76 years.Secondly, Kashmir being a landlocked territory is bound to depend on one of its two immediate neighbours to have access to the external world for the purpose of tele-communication, transport, foreign affairs, defence cooperation, trade and commerce and the people to people contact. So an independent Kashmir will have to depend on India or Pakistan on three subjects which include defence, foreign affairs and communication. Thus a sovereign Republic of Kashmir would be in fact an autonomous Republic of Kashmir within India or Pakistan. However, Kashmir will not be the only landlocked country in Asia as there are other landlocked countries in the extended neighborhood of Kashmir such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan. So the important questions are how to get Kashmir demilitarised ? and which will be the immediate neighbouring country through which an independent Kashmir will have land, sea and air communication with rest of the world?
The author can be reached at ghathar@yahoo.co.in
Views expressed are author’s own.