Jammu and Kashmir is on boil again. The continued suspicion growing out of fear psychosis created by some advisory orders issued has left everybody in denial. There is a continuous chaos and panic in nook and cranny of Kashmir. People are actively engaged in hoarding essentials viz fuel , food , cash et al to face any prospective adversity. The serious fallout of this internal insecurity in the minds of men has flourished cold war like atmosphere. What adds insult to injury is permanent mum on part of administration be it state or central owing the steps to some threats for tourists and yatris which seems far from satisfaction. Herein lies the space for analysis of possible narratives and possible courses of action in the coming future. On a more serious note the reiterated mediation offer of Mr Donald Trump is also adding speculation of growing international interest in the backdrop of UNHRC report of human rights earlier. What then is the possibility in front of Amit Shah and PM Modi led order guided by Mr Doval’s Doctrine. Modi led Govt has shown intent of decisiveness in its Ist stent which makes the situation more adverse. It’s to be noted that Article 370 and 35 A are but a part and parcel of BJP’s manifesto especially Amit shah led strategy who is holding home portfolio these days. To a naked eye the situation is one of tense and turf due to continued refusal by administration on one or other pretext. What then is the matter of debate ?
Historically J&K is a disputed region between India and Pakistan. It’s an unsettled partition territory inhabited by Muslim majority with unclear division between these two countries. With UNSC resolutions, approach and counter narratives, bilateral wars and agreements etc on one side and growing indigenization movement in Indian Kashmir on other the issue is catching international attention now. What lies at heart of matter is agreed principle of 1972 Simla Agreement”That the two countries are resolved to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations or by any other peaceful means mutually agreed upon between them”. The Indian establishment is quoting this agreement continuously when it comes to Kashmir dispute since then. They clearly discard any international arbitration or mediation through either way UNSC or any country. In this backdrop PM of Pakistan visited US a few weeks ago and probably raised this issue with forceful note which motivated Donald Trump to jerk and quote Modi’s request for mediation in this international dispute. This mediation offer has been repeated once again during a media briefing by US president. Indian position is clearly illegitimate in this regard. Article 51 of DPSP’S endeavors state to respect international law. Ist of all dispute is absolutely international in nature not bilateral because UNSC has already resolved it way back in 1948 on India’s request. The resolutions deserve implementation not shifting of contours after decades from country claiming seat in coveted club. Moreover the nuclear armed states most often reach at flash point which may hamper peace and stability of whole south Asia which also bestows international status to this long standing dispute. Therefore farsightedness lies in accepting the proposal of Trump that too when Indo-US relationship has assumed strategic importance.
Coming to domestic narrative the situation of Kashmir seems restive in aftermath of 1991 with each passing day. The post Burhan period has witnessed continuous indigenization of movement led by intellectuals where Doctors , Engineers, Philosphers etc are engaged in strengthening separatism in Kashmir. The arrival of Right wing politics flourished this wave due to continuous iron hand approach guided by militarism and strict vigilance. Modi led Govt locked horns against separatists and militants especially after Pulwama episode. On the other hand the Constitutional provisions included in Indian Constitution on pretext of conditional accession seems on radar right after challenge in SC and subsequent change of stand by central Govt. The current situation is correlated with same conviction and belief. Central Govt is rushing heavy security establishment towards Kashmir and issuing some advisories for tourists and Yatris to reinforce such suspicion. Although security and threat perception is deemed as reason in administrative corridors but evacuation bid in NIT with nip and tuck measures creates fissures in Governor administration’s explanation. If overall atmosphere of ongoing year is taken into consideration, it’s far satisfactory than 2016 or 17. Then what compels evacuation of Tourists? To a pragmatic eye the situation seems conducive for BJP to toe the tide this time and fulfill pending manifesto provisions in case of Kashmir. The possibility of trifurcation, flag unfurling, scraping constitutional provisions etc may see the light of the day. Denial and repression by state authorities are absolutely opportunistic approaches to put kashmiris on defensive. The administration is trying to provide calm, mild and peaceful way for any dissent in the future which is clearly a distant possibility. The engagement and containment of such spirit couldn’t be in tune with administration line.
What compels such avoidable things to happen in Kashmir has two possible reasons? The unabated failure of past seven decades to fix this long standing dispute by appeasement and soft strategy of Congress. The belief of BJP by holding J.L. Nehru responsible for Kashmir issue seems the hardline strategy could counter and safeguard unity and integrity of country. While as the second possible reason is to dissuade the hoi polio of country from creeping economic and social issues during Modi era. The economy is unable to produce necessary jobs and come to expectation of millions. While as mob lynching, Dalit issues etc are adding strain to Modi Doctrine. This narrative calls upon shifting counters for continuum of mass support linkage. Kashmir in this regard is fertile place to keep the majority support intact amid growing right wing jingoism in world with rise of Trump order. The people have possibly developed faith that only iron hand could solve the issues confronted by country. Balakote strike and the war hysteria in the winters has enhanced scope for BJP to tread this uneven trajectory. Whatever be the case, the atmosphere is in full blossom to witness any major policy shift in the days ahead. However as put by some political expert “Before you act see where did you stand “. The situation of Kashmir is certainly against any such move. The ground speaks in adverse note of caution to unfold any such illegitimate decision. The hoarding of essentials shall also be viewed from prism of preparation for prospective and long drawn backlash. The administrative steps also reckon such notion but hell-bent to overturn the prevailing situation. The absolute mum kept by administration is uncalled for largest democracy as put by Defence expert ” why is Govt keeping it behind walls even if there’s a plan to scrap article. Govt shall not be afraid of taking any policy decisions. Whatever is it must be in the public domain as the fear and psychosis isn’t conciliatory to Democratic spirit”
Writer Shahid Majeed Mir can be reached at mirshahid363@gmail.com
