Abdullah Pandit
3524 years—that’s about how long humans have been involved in wars, according to recorded history. Whether the reasons have been justified or not can be argued for not just centuries but aeons, but no one can argue that war has been a pivotal part of human civilization, and we may not just be on the cusp of a new war but on the cusp of the deadliest kind of war, a world war.The first world war claimed around 22 million lives and the second, with the advancement of technology, claimed 85 million, it would be logical to assume the third would claim more than both combined.2024 has already been a year in which the cries of war have grown louder than in recent years, aided by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the genocide in Palestine, Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate, and with 64 countries and the European Parliament holding their elections, the world is in a state of chaos. One of the countries having elections is Iran.
Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, stated in a speech that the “malicious” Zionist regime will be punished for attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus. He then goes on to mention that the consulate was regarded as Iranian soil, and attacking it is akin to attacking Iran itself2. Israel, along with its allies, managed to intercept and stop 99% of the drones and missiles launched by Iran , which the world regarded as a failure on Iran’s part. However, Iran believed their attack was a success. In an interview with CNN, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated that Iran was able to reach its objective by showing their willingness. Also, they were able to carry out operations against the military bases from which the attack on the consulate was launched, and their attack was conducted at a minimum as they weren’t seeking to hit multiple targets in the occupied Palestinian territory Furthermore, he stated that the attack was not carried out in secret and was announced a week prior. Lastly, he stated that if Israel attacks Iran again, Iran’s response will be immediate and at a maximum level. This attack will most likely involve weapons from Russia, as the two U.S.-sanctioned countries have been involved in weapon trade.
With the Ukraine war raging for more than 2 years now, a conflict that doesn’t seem to have an end in sight, people are wondering if the third world war will begin in Europe once again, like its predecessors. In a recent interview by Tucker Carlson Vladimir Putin, a man who rarely needs an introduction, mentioned that he believes Ukraine is an artificial country that rightfully belongs to Russia. He also stated that Russia hasn’t achieved its aims yet as one of them is “denazification”. He also mentioned that Russia and Ukraine had almost reached negotiations in Istanbul and that Davyd Arakhamia (Ukrainian lead negotiator) had even given his preliminary signature, but before Davyd Arakhamia could sign it he was contacted from then president of the U.K, Boris Jhonson who dissuaded them from doing so, telling them that it was better to clash with Russia and that any damage will be compensated. It was also stated that President Zelensky issued a decree prohibiting negotiations with Russia and that, if this ban was lifted, Russia would be more than willing to enter into peace negotiations. But with no such situation currently and with neither side pushing for negotiations, it really leaves one to wonder, is world war 3 actually here?
The situation in Europe is unlikely to lead to a world war as Putin, when asked if he was going to invade Poland and if he has territorial aims across the continent, asserted that “it is absolutely out of the question, you just don’t have to be any kind of analyst, it goes against common sense to get involved in some kind of a global war and a global war will bring all humanity to the brink of destruction, it’s obvious”. So that can give hope that a world war won’t spark from the Russia-Ukraine war but how about the Middle East?
It is unreasonable that a world war will begin from the Middle East as even if Iran retaliates with a dangerous attack the maximum it can escalate to would be a war in Iran but not around the globe, this has one simple reason Iran lacks allies while Israel has a multitude of them. Israel is allied with countries such as the U.S, India, most European countries and also most of its neighbouring countries. Meanwhile Iran may have Hezbollah and the Houthis as allies but Iran’s ally ship with other countries such as Russia and China doesn’t extend beyond trade and as mentioned previously, Russia is unwilling to enter into a world war and China won’t either as all the odds are against it. Tehran knows this and with this knowledge they would be unwilling to escalate things further as they simply can’t.
As a result it is unlikely that a third world war will start, with Tehran not being in a tactical position to escalate things, Israel being occupied Palestine, Ukraine and Russia occupied with each other and Russia not wanting to enter into a global war. The unlikeliness of a world war should be a positive amongst the negatives in our world.
The Author is a student of Foundation World School