Srinagar, Dec 10 : Weather experts have cautioned against misleading claims linking the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) directly with a surge in Western Disturbance (WD) activity over Jammu & Kashmir later this month, stressing that current atmospheric signals do not support such conclusions.
Independent weather forecaster and founder of ‘Kashmir Weather’, Faizan Arif Keng, has clarified that linking the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) to claims of “enhanced Western Disturbance activity after 25 December” is misleading and scientifically unsound.
Keng told news agency Kashmir News Corner — KNC, Keng said, “Linking the MJO directly to enhanced Western Disturbance activity after 25 December is quite misleading. At the moment, the MJO is in Phase 8 and the index is already close to the centre, which means its amplitude is weak. A weak MJO has little ability to influence mid-latitude weather.”
He added that even if the MJO stays in Phase 8 in the coming days, “there is no established day-to-day link between its phase and specific weather over Jammu & Kashmir. Our weather is driven by many factors simultaneously, not by one index.”
Keng noted that while one study suggests that MJO phases 6-8 may enhance November-March precipitation over parts of the Middle East and Southwest Asia, this does not translate into daily forecasts.
“This is a statistical, seasonal-mean signal, not a guarantee that every time MJO is in Phase X, it will snow or rain in J&K. It only helps with broad background probabilities,” he said.
On the ongoing weather pattern, the forecaster noted an increase in Western Disturbance frequency.
“Western Disturbances have already increased now, and this trend will continue for the next couple of weeks. Most systems will be weak, but a few may still bring snowfall to higher reaches,” he said.
He added that after more than 50 days of dry weather, some precipitation in January is reasonable to expect unless the region witnesses another unusual winter like last year.
Commenting on ENSO misconceptions, Keng warned against oversimplifying El Niño and La Niña effects. “Some people said last year’s dry winter was because of El Niño. Now it is La Niña, so they think the opposite must happen. But the atmosphere does not work like an ON/OFF switch,” he said.
He emphasised that ENSO only tilts the odds and its influence over J&K is moderated by multiple other atmospheric processes, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic circulation patterns, the subtropical jet, Indian Ocean conditions, Eurasian snow cover, and internal variability. “Going from El Niño to La Niña does not guarantee that one winter will be dry and the next automatically wet,” he said. (KNC)
